Supply and Demand Zones in Forex Trading - Strategies and ...

[Strategies] Here is My Trading Approach, Thought Process and Execution

Hello everyone. I've noticed a lot of us here are quite secretive about how we trade, especially when we comment on a fellow trader's post. We're quick to tell them what they're doing isn't the "right way" and they should go to babypips or YouTube. There's plenty of strategies we say but never really tell them what is working for us. There's a few others that are open to share their experience and thought processes when considering a valid trade. I have been quite open myself. But I'm always met with the same "well I see what you did is quite solid but what lead you to deem this trade valid for you? "
The answer is quite simple, I have a few things that I consider which are easy rules to follow. I realized that the simpler you make it, the easier it is for you to trade and move on with your day.
I highlight a few "valid" zones and go about my day. I've got an app that alerts me when price enters the zone on my watchlist. This is because I don't just rely on forex trading money, I doubt it would be wise to unless you're trading a 80% win rate strategy. Sometimes opportunities are there and we exploit them accordingly but sometimes we are either distracted by life issues and decide to not go into the markets stressed out or opportunities just aren't there or they are but your golden rules aren't quite met.
My rules are pretty simple, one of the prime golden rules is, "the risk is supposed to be very minimal to the reward I want to yield from that specific trade". i.e I can risk -50 pips for a +150 and more pips gain. My usual target starts at 1:2 but my most satisfying trade would be a 1:3 and above. This way I can lose 6/10 trades and still be profitable.
I make sure to keep my charts clean and simple so to understand what price does without the interference of indicators all over my charts. Not to say if you use indicators for confluence is a complete no-no. Each trader has their own style and I would be a narcissistic asshole if I assumed my way is superior than anybody else's.
NB: I'm doing this for anybody who has a vague or no idea of supply and demand. Everything here has made me profitable or at least break even but doesn't guarantee the same for you. This is just a scratch on the surface so do all you can for due diligence when it comes to understanding this topic with more depth and clear comprehension.
Supply and Demand valid zones properties; what to me makes me think "oh this zone has the potential to make me money, let me put it on my watchlist"? Mind when I say watchlist, not trade it. These are different in this sense.
👉With any zone, you're supposed to watch how price enters the zone, if there's a strong push in the opposite direction or whatever price action you're observing...only then does the zone becomes valid. YOU TRADE THE REACTION, NOT THE EXPECTATION Some setups just fail and that's okay because you didn't gamble. ✍
!!!IMPORTANT SUBJECT TO LEARN BEFORE YOU START SUPPLY AND DEMAND!!!
FTR. Failure to Return.(Please read on these if you haven't. They are extremely important in SnD). Mostly occur after an impulse move from a turning point. See attached examples: RBR(rally base rally)/DBD(drop base drop). They comprise of an initial move to a certain direction, a single candle in the opposite direction and followed by 2 or more strong candles in the initial direction. The opposite candle is your FTR(This is your zone) The first time price comes back(FTB) to a zone with an FTR has high possibilities to be a strong zone.
How to identify high quality zones according to my approach:
  1. Engulfing zones; This is a personal favorite. For less errors I identify the best opportunities using the daily and 4H chart.
On the example given, I chose the GBPNZD trade idea I shared here a month ago I believe. A double bottom is easily identified, with the final push well defined Bullish Engulfing candle. To further solidify it are the strong wicks to show strong rejection and failure to close lower than the left shoulder. How we draw our zone is highlight the whole candle just before the Engulfing Candle. That's your zone. After drawing it, you also pay attention to the price that is right where the engulfing starts. You then set a price alert on your preferred app because usually price won't get there immediately. This is the second most important part of trading, PATIENCE. If you can be disciplined enough to not leave a limit order, or place a market order just because you trust your analysis...you've won half the battle because we're not market predictors, we're students. And we trade the reaction.
On the given example, price had already reached the zone of interest. Price action observed was, there was a rejection that drove it out of the zone, this is the reaction we want. Soon as price returns(retests)...this is your time to fill or kill moment, going to a 4H or 1H to make minimum risk trades. (See GBPNZD Example 1&2)
  1. Liquidity Run; This approach looks very similar to the Engulfing zones. The difference is, price makes a few rejections on a higher timeframe level(Resistance or support). This gives the novice trader an idea that we've established a strong support or resistance, leading to them either selling or buying given the opportunity. Price then breaks that level trapping the support and resistance trader. At this point, breakout traders have stop orders below or above these levels to anticipate a breakout at major levels with stops just below the levels. Now that the market has enough traders trapped, it goes for the stop losses above or below support and resistance levels after taking them out, price comes back into the level to take out breakout traders' stop losses. This is where it has gathered enough liquidity to move it's desired direction.
The given example on the NZDJPY shows a strong level established twice. With the Bearish Engulfing movement, price leaves a supply zone...that's where we come in. We go to smaller timeframes for a well defined entry with our stops above the recent High targeting the next demand zone.
The second screenshot illustrates how high the reward of this approach is as well. Due diligence is required for this kind of approach because it's not uncommon but usually easily misinterpreted, which is why it's important it's on higher timeframes.
You can back test and establish your own rules on this but the RSI in this case was used for confluence. It showed a strong divergence which made it an even easier trade to take.
...and last but definitely not least,
  1. Double Bottom/Top. (I've used double bottoms on examples because these are the only trades I shared here so we'll talk about double bottoms. Same but opposite rules apply on double tops).
The first most important rule here is when you look to your left, price should have made a Low, High and a Lower Low. This way, the last leg(shoulder) should be lower than the first. Some call this "Hidden Zones". When drawing the zones, the top border of the zone is supposed to be on the tip of the Low and covering the Lower Low. **The top border is usually the entry point.
On the first given example I shared this week, NZDCAD. After identifying the structure, you start to look for zones that could further verify the structure for confluence. Since this was identified on the 4H, when you zoom out to the daily chart...there's a very well defined demand zone (RBR). By now you should know how strong these kind of zones are especially if found on higher timeframes. That will now be your kill zone. You'll draw another zone within the bigger zone, if price doesn't close below it...you've got a trade. You'll put your stop losses outside the initial zone to avoid wicks(liquidity runs/stop hunts)
On the second image you'll see how price closed within the zone and rallied upwards towards your targets.
The second example is CHFJPY; although looking lower, there isn't a rally base rally that further solidifies our bias...price still respected the zone. Sometimes we just aren't going to get perfect setups but it is up to us to make calculated risks. In this case, risk is very minimal considering the potential profit.
The third example (EURNZD) was featured because sometimes you just can't always get perfect price action within your desired zone. Which is why it's important to wait for price to close before actually taking a trade. Even if you entered prematurely and were taken out of the trade, the rules are still respected hence a re entry would still yield you more than what you would have lost although revenge trading is wrong.
I hope you guys learnt something new and understand the thought process that leads to deciding which setups to trade from prepared supply and demand trade ideas. It's important to do your own research and back testing that matches your own trading style. I'm more of a swing trader hence I find my zones using the Daily and 4H chart. Keeping it simple and trading the reaction to your watched zone is the most important part about trading any strategy.
Important Note: The trade ideas on this post are trades shared on this sub ever since my being active only because I don't want to share ideas that I may have carefully picked to make my trading approach a blind pick from the millions on the internet. All these were shared here.
Here's a link to the trade ideas analyzed for this post specifically
Questions are welcome on the comments section. Thank you for reading till here.
submitted by SupplyAndDemandGuy to Forex [link] [comments]

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I've been thinking a lot about my own trading and have come to some harsh conclusions. It's time we discuss some hard truths about technical analysis, mechanical trading, and psychology I think many of us don't want to accept.

I've had a rough week and it sounds like I'm not the only one. This week has wiped out my gains since July 1st, and I'm finding myself ever-so-slightly in the hole this month so far. I've made money every other month I've traded, so I'm not writing myself off as a failure, but nevertheless, I've done some digging to try and figure out what I'm struggling with. I hope the following observations about my own trading resonate with some of you and can help us all become better traders.
First off: Fundamental/technical analysis. Since I started with forex a few years ago, I've put 100% of my time and effort into studying technicals. I think many traders, myself included, are drawn to technical analysis because we fall into the trap of thinking "If I just figure out what combination of indicators/chart patterns/algorithms work for me, trading will be smooth sailing." Being able to take a formulaic approach is incredibly appealing because it's much easier to simply check off a list of criteria than it is to interpret more nuanced information. For me, I found success drawing supply and demand zones, using Bollinger Bands to visualize market structure, and confirming reversal patterns with stochastics to trade from one zone to the next. I even studied the math behind those indicators to make sure I fully understood how they worked so I could identify their limitations, and for the most part, the strategy made money. Nevertheless, if I had a dollar for every time I take what I think is a perfect setup, then the market takes me on a wacky-ass ride of unexpected "crazy bullshit" that stops me out, I wouldn't be trading for a living. After some introspection, my conclusion is that those moments are not "crazy bullshit", but rather are the results of factors that fall outside of the (actually very narrow) scope of technical analysis. This has been hard to accept, as I previously learned technical analysis was perfectly viable as a sole perspective. I was taught that the market can be predicted based on analyzing past behavior. It seems obvious now, but when I think about it, no combination of chart patterns or indicators can predict next week's unemployment figures, interest rates, or what announcements (or blunders) world leaders are going to make on the global stage. Technicals work, but they only work when the market is reacting to fundamental factors, and as soon as a new fundamental change comes along, every bit of technical analysis used until that point becomes obsolete. What I'm trying to say is, at the very least, I need to be able to understand when, why, and how the game is going to change if my technicals are going to serve me. As such, I need to stop shirking fundamental analysis. It's time I start paying attention to that economic calendar and put in the effort to learn what each event means and how to interpret the results to figure out how the market will react. It's simply not as easy as looking at the technicals. It should be obvious that there's no magic formula to trading, but many of us try hard to avoid coming to terms with the fact that there's a lot more to "analysis" than just price action, risk management, and indicators.
The problem is we as traders want trading to be easy. It's a career that society glorifies, and even if we tell ourselves we know it's not a get-rich-quick scheme, we still want to "figure it out" so we can spend a few hours a week scribbling on our charts and making simple black and white decisions while we kick back and "live comfortably". And so we try to trick ourselves into thinking it is easy by endlessly parroting mantras like "Risk management is all that matters" and "Trading is 100% psychology" and "All you need to do is find the strategy that works for you and stick to it." The first two are certainly pieces of the puzzle, but there's so much more to the big picture.
The last mantra isn't even remotely true, and brings me to my second point, which thankfully is something I figured out early in my career, but it's too related to the previous topic to not mention: Mechanical strategies. The sentiment that you need to clearly define a precise, detailed strategy and always stick to it is another lie to make trading seem simpler than it really is. Even when I was just starting to demo trade, I was finding trades that would tick all the boxes outlined by my strategy, but my gut would hesitate. Long after I identified that problem, I also began to notice that I'd be forcing myself to hold onto trades, even if they were not moving as fast or far as I initially thought they would. Once I decided to leave room for my own instinct and discretion, I became much more successful. It's important to understand your strategy is a set of rules you yourself made up. If your strategy does not line up with your own professional opinion of the situation based on your personal experiences and observations, you need to find out why. Yes, you absolutely should draw on your past experiences and be consistent in how you examine the market, how much you risk, and what tools you use, but give yourself enough credit to form your own opinions. The market is not consistent. Do not expect to succeed by applying one cookie-cutter set of rules to different currencies, at different times, during different events. Long-term success in any other line of work is dependent on critical thinking and the ability to adapt to an ever-changing world, and forex is no different. It's not simple, it's not easy, and you will have to make difficult decisions.
This wound up being longer than I anticipated, so thanks for reading. I'm eager to hear everyone's thoughts on these topics, so please share them.
submitted by TheFOREXplorer to Forex [link] [comments]

Started from the bottom and I finally made it! My tips for new traders starting.

A little background, 23 year old dude from Singapore with IT background (Ethical hacker), friend introduced me to Forex which he eventually quit but I didn't. I love challenges and now I plan on taking up Forex trading as a career apart from my passive income jobs.
When I first started trading, I was frustrated! I had so many unanswered questions, why do I keep getting stopped out? Why are my profits so low? Why was my trades always going opposite only once I opened. Is my broker trading against me? So I paused and walked away from the charts for a few weeks, in that break I took it upon myself to understand more about Forex before opening the charts again and here is what I learned. Mind you, I did not buy any course or Indicators! All I did was read articles on the internet, watch a ton of YouTube videos and tried almost all indicators .

Here we go, my tips. These are based on my views
  1. UNDERSTAND BANKS AND BIG FINANCIALS INSTITUTIONS MOVES THE MARKET - No retail traders will be able to move the market like how the Big Banks move the market. You need to understand how banks move smart money and dumb money.(Will explain more later in the post)
  2. STOP SEARCHING FOR THE HOLY GRAIL - No indicators is going to tell you where is the best entry or best exit. They often lag and are behind time so by the time you enter a trade, the trend has already moved a certain percentage causing you to lose precious pips that you could have gotten as profits. Instead look at the charts to search for "low risk, high probability trades" (Will explain more later in the post)
  3. LOOK OUT FOR NEWS (fundamentals) - Big impact news move the markets with big moves, don't get stopped out because you entered at the wrong time without knowing that there is a high impact news in a few minutes/hours. It might hurt your account badly even through you have a stop-loss. Understand the nature of the news and how it will impact the currency.
  4. DO NOT CHASE PROFITS - Chasing profits will be the number one reason you blow your account because no amount of money will satisfy you, you will always want more. Trust me, I've been there and done that . Instead start looking at percentage earned and loss, because in Forex you need money to make money. Lets say you have a target of 5% a month, with a $1000 account that is only $50 and doesn't seem significant but do that with a $100,000 account and you will get $5000 every month. I think you will get it by now. You can't just open a $1000 account and expect to be a millionaire in 1 month. Greed will take over you and you will blow every account you open.
  5. DO NOT OVER LEVERAGE YOU ACCOUNT - By over leveraging you will be able to open larger lot sizes and you will feel good that you can use less money to earn more profit! Then you will start trading, say you profited your first trade and you feel good about yourself. Profited your second trade and feel even better. So you go bigger in the third trade, and guess what? You lost this trade. And this one loss is enough to wipe out your whole $1000 account.
  6. MORE TRADES DOES NOT GIVE YOU MORE PROFITS - As a trader you should understand not every trade will turn out positive, there will always be negative trades. And at times you can have more negative trade than positive but still end up with profits at the end of the week? This is where quality over quantity trades comes in play. Lets say for example you had 4 losing trades and 2 winning trades, your losing trades are 2% each and your winning trades are 8% each, add them up and you will still have 8% profit. This is also a very important part called risk management. YOU MUST UNDERSTAND RISK MANAGEMENT ELSE YOU WILL ALWAYS FAIL IN FOREX.
  7. NEVER CHASE THE MARKET - Markets move 24/7 from Monday 5 AM to Saturday 5 AM (Singapore time, GMT+8). There will be plenty of opportunity to enter the market. You don't always need to have an open position during this time to feel like a trader. Smart traders look for the best opportunity to enter the market at certain levels. Missed an opportunity, don't worry! There will always be another opportunity, trust me! By chasing the market and always trying to open a position, it will only cause you to blow out your account faster.
  8. PATIENCE PATIENCE PATIENCE - I can't place more emphasis on this point. Once you have analysed the market and placed your trade, be patient and let the market work for you. By you sitting at the screen 24/7, the trade is not going to go by your way magically. Remember Bulls will Profit, Bears will profit, only Pigs will get slaughtered! Don't let greed eat you alive.

Now lets talk about the "low risk, high probability" trades and how I trade. Trading is easy, if you take some time to understand it.

How I trade? That's a simple question. I use supply and demand together with fundamentals. I keep my charts clean off indicators. I know I know as soon as I say supply and demand, some of you are going to be like supply and demand doesn't exist in the currency market. But I hope you understand this are my views.
Supply and Demand
Supply and demand levels are zones that tend to be tested again and again till its broken creating another level for supply and demand. You are basically trading against the trend and I know people will be scared and think I'm dumb for saying. But once I learned this theory and started practicing it, I kicked myself in the bum for being so dumb all this while. This zones are also known for when banks throw large amount of money into the market. Bank traders do not have their screen cluttered with tons of indicators like retail trades who is just in search for the holy grail. They practice supply and demand. Let me put it in a easier context, It is basically buying a currency at wholesale and selling it at a retail price. People always practice this everyday in life like buying more of a certain item just because it is on discount at a supermarket but I don't understand why they neglect it when it comes to Forex. It is no different here in the markets. I am not going to say no more, as I want you to google more about it and understand it yourself, that is the best way you will learn better. Watch YouTube videos, read articles, see how bankers trade, understand why they place the trade.
Also understand that there is no supply and demand in lower time frame like M1 or M5, its just noise. For myself, I use H1/H4/D1.
I make 100-200 pips per week and that is enough for me currently, Remember don't be greedy.
However when there is news events, supply and demand may be ignored due to the nature of how fundamentals affect the market differently. Understand the difference and with that I have came to the end.
Remember to treat yourself once in awhile when you do good each month, You will enjoy trading better. Let me tell you the best part about trading, is that you can work from anywhere in the world, be your own boss and never be pressured by anyone.
If you have made it this far, I thank you for taking your time to read this thread. This may be your first step to success.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND AND HAPPY TRADING

submitted by Rishanan to Forex [link] [comments]

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital


Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital


Ever wonder why when you trade your stop gets tagged? Although you put it in a spot where "There's no way price will want to reach my stop level for sure this time"
As a trader, particularly a new trader – I've always wondered why my stops were only tagged for the price of running briefly the area that I've ever so carefully researched ... hit my stop point ..... then move on in the direction of my original study and run to the point where my profit should have been taken.
Everything leaving me wondering ...... In the hell for what did this do??? Obviously this is a common issue that has plagued most traders. At least, I know that I have faced this very problem for years.

What I noticed was that there was a very distinctive pattern going on, and it was repeating itself again and again. I noticed that the traditional supply and demand theory, support and resistance zones, or double top / double bottom trading patterns that I have been told time and time again that price has always covered these regions, was not really a real thing.

The argument had been, ..... Put me into the shoes of the major investment banks vs. the home-trading fighter who was going to conquer the markets every day. If you were a large company with an infinite supply of money and you decided to bring a massive chunk of it into the game, you can't just dump the whole lot into the game and demand all your orders to be filled out at once, then take off the price in the direction you want .... no ..... That is not exactly the way it operates.All these major organizations need to do is pair orders.

And they match that order by sending the markets to areas where liquidity is high .... The stops AKA!

Let 's say you 're evaluating the markets, for example, and deciding that price wants to go higher than an old regular target as it's in a bullish uptrend at the moment. And you see price for the past day, or so, not willing to go any lower.
What looks like a bit of a demand shelf or support level where the demand is all in a nice tight clustered row that just doesn't seem to want to go down and you know for sure this time price won't go under that heavily protected area ..... only for the price to run down quickly and refuse to go up (in this case a long position).
And I started to note that these "secure zones" or places where price is certainly not going to come up / down to be simply used by these large entities as feeding grounds for harvesting liquidity and adding more positions to include them in a larger movement.

They need a lot of money to buy in and just to do so, your sell stop is great. Many traders put their stops below this tight pack range of candles a few pips / ticks / cents believing they 're secure as price obviously doesn't want to come down below them. And most traders have their positions liquidated by the hungry major capital banks to feed the whole push higher than you were originally right about.

And how can you stop this pitfall happening to you is the million-dollar question? There are a few ways to handle this and keep your hard-earned money from being ripped away from you in an moment, which you have at risk in the markets.

Stop-Hunting and the Hunger For New Capital

I found that you would do much better in your trading career if you look at these areas (in the above example a long position) as a chance rather than a safe zone to put your stop. What I mean by that is, anticipate them coming down under those equal lows and try to get far below it instead of getting long above the area of consolidation. Yeah, that means you're going to have to go long when the competition runs against you and I know , I know, it feels really uncomfortable and wrong and goes against all you've been taught ... but believe me that this approach can give you the very best possible entries.
Imagine: getting into the day 's low and riding price action all the way up to the top of everyday scale!!! Wouldn't this be terrific?

Well, if your quantitative skills are timely and your business research tells you to go a long way, then all you need to do is wait for the perfect entry. Let the price build up and create "demand shelf" or support areas for that. Let the market shift sideways and bounce around like a pinball mocking all the other traders who were at the top of these stuff for a long time and put their stops just below them in hopes that the price would not come down and stop them. All the while playing with and holding their emotions on the cliff of –Will this be a winner, or a trade loser? So when price does the unimaginable and runs below the support area and scoops up all the traders stops you can then go long and take part in the glorious upside of being right – and of course make some money doing it.

Notice facile? Well, that is not so. It takes patience and timing and experience to catch all those eager participants who keep their stops on a silver platter for the fat and thirsty banks to suck them up, as the markets normally send price south of the border.
Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital (meme)

You have to define the times of the day when the wrong move is made apparent.
Or when they make that low of the day – typically within the 1st 1 – 4 hours
of the trading day, and I don't mean either when the banks come online at 8 a.m. NY.
I mean 12 am, at the beginning of the day.
So yes you 're definitely going to have to be awake if you like watching
price do its thing and don't trust the process of buying into those down candles.
And use a limit order like me-then go to sleep and trust your overall analysis to be right and wake up to your morning with a nice little start.
But the trick is-where are you going to shop under the lows?

And where does your stop then go when you buy?

Those are all interesting questions that I should seek to answer clearly here – but alas, all markets are different.

Yet general rule of thumb as follows:

  1. You should predict that such stop-sweeps will occur in grades 5 and 10. The average is usually about 10, cents, pips, ticks or otherwise. The bigger the step down the more likely it is not a stop raid and potentially a reversal of the pattern. And you can prevent too much danger and keep the stop fairly secure.
Your stop will need to go low on the 1hr map below the next move. As a minimum, and yes, that may mean a greater risk level that you are usually prepared to take.
However if that is the case then try to turn your power back.
You don't need to make every trade worth a million dollars.
This is about continuity, when dealing, not winning the draw.
In your research you need to be sure the price will push higher as this is how the overall trend directions point it.
I am not recommending trade in these types of trades against the trend.
You need to be in full agreement with the direction of the total daily level.
And bringing it in.

Also, a great way to place the maximum risk reward for your take profit:

Attempt to position it in places above the market where short-sellers will stop.

And in a nutshell, with a bit of analysis, all the knowledge I described above can be readily found, I didn't come up with it on my own and these ideas are not unique. Yet how you adapt them to your particular trading style is up to you and relies on your interpretation of these principles for your success and/or failure. Price is fractal and would want to return to markets it has previously sold before – if you accept the basic fact you ought to be doing very well in your business career.

Eva " Forex " Canares .
Cheers and Profitable Trading to All.

About FTMO -
They fund forex traders. Just Pass their risk management rules and begin trading for their company. They'll provide you capital up to $300k USD for trading the financial markets. 70% of profits you keep and losses are covered by them. How does it work?
How to Become a Funded Forex ,Stocks or CryptoCurrency Trader?
submitted by Eva_Canares to FTMO_Forex_Trading [link] [comments]

Crypto exchange trade. Remember psychology!

https://medium.com/@sergiygolubyev/crypto-exchange-trade-remember-psychology-6d4433569d9d
Crypto Exchange is a high-tech platform in which all trade transactions are conducted using modern software created based on the latest IT solutions. The emergence of new types of currencies, in particular cryptocurrencies, gives a chance for the rapid development of the world economy as a whole. In turn, structural changes in the international economic system gave impetus to the emergence and development of new types of exchange technologies. Thus, crypto exchanges appeared which allowed its participants anywhere in the world to buy, sell and exchange one cryptocurrency for others, or for fiat of other countries. Each crypto exchange tries to offer customers convenient ways to convert financial instruments, and provides the ability to conduct transactions on its own terms. The high rates of development and distribution of cryptocurrencies, which are based on Blockchain, as well as the gradual wide recognition by the world community and leading economists, ensure the further improvement of exchange technologies. This means that in an effort to provide the most comfortable conditions for its customers, each crypto exchange will take them to an ever-higher quality level of service with innovative nuances. But at the same time, within the framework of the technological process of stock trading, which is available to users (from professional traders to amateurs), the question of psychology and its role in the decision making has not been canceled. Successful trading depends on 70% primarily on the psychology of a trader and only 30% on the trading scheme/strategy.
Trading on the exchange, it is necessary to develop discipline, self-control and be able to respond quickly to changing stock charts. All this will allow you to earn and minimize your losses more effectively. Everyone should remember, from the amateur to the professional, that in the financial markets you can not only earn money, but also lose money. Cryptocurrency rates are still subject to political and regulatory influences; their value is influenced by the reputation of the company's founders, informational insertions about blockchain projects and plans for their further development, scandals and disclosures. Nevertheless, there are simple rules for successful trading from the field of psychology, which will reduce the risks when trying to make money on cryptocurrency and not only. There are a number of problems that always hinder every beginner - amateur:
· Excitement
· Fear
· Greed
· Unwillingness to learn new things
· Imaginary visualization of results
All these problems have psychological aspects. Emotions, feelings and desires significantly influence the trading decisions made by the trader. This happens all the time, not only on traditional exchanges, but also in the cryptocurrency sphere as well. Excitement is an emotional state when it seems to a person that he is lucky, and as the series of successful transactions continues, he performs larger by volume financial transactions. Often, the excitement motivates to turn away from long-term transactions and trends, and look towards short-term operations. After all, it seems that the more often you successfully complete operations, the more capital you earn. Not at all! The more often you make mistakes, leading to a default on your account. Money only is earned on long-term trends and operations. Traders are often worried, fearing an unsuccessful deal closing.
Of course, a loss is bad, but sometimes it is better to close a position in minus than to lose a large amount only because of the hope of a quick price reversal. Therefore, fear often pushes for the wrong strategic decisions. Fear of loss as a result becomes a sentence for your positioning in profit. On the same face with fear, if not strange, is the factor of greed. Having essentially a different source of inspiration, greed, like fear, leads to a generally pitiable result — to the default of your trading account. The reluctance to learn new strategies, technologies, and denial of forecasting also leads to failure. Successful is who always strives to learn new things, and perceives the fact and necessity of continuous learning. Since learning is a process of striving for the progress of its results and professional qualities. Another scourge - Wish list or visualization. Everyone wants to see the price move in the right direction. This is pretty dangerous. By visualizing the price jump in the right direction, you can dream and invest too much in cryptocurrency. This will lead to losses. Here you should always remember to diversify your investments. Remember your psychological portrait even when you program your trading strategies, algorithms and bots. After all, your algorithm is essentially your psychological portrait. Finally, the above-mentioned flaws, especially in the strategy can dominate and damage your deposit and reputation. The main signs of competent crypto-trade are the same as on other exchanges (such as FOREX). This is a kind of algorithm for a sustainable profit strategy:
· Risk no more than 10% of the deposit
· Use risk per trade of 5% or less
· Do not close profitable deals too early
· Do not accumulate losing trades
· Fix quick speculative profit
· Respect the trend
· Pay more attention to liquid assets (cryptocurrency)
· Set your personal entry and exit rules for trades and stick to them
· Long-term trading strategy gives you maximum steady profits
· Do not use the principles of Martingale tactics if there is no experience. You cannot double the volume of the transaction, if it closed in the red zone. If a loss was incurred, then the cryptocurrency market situation was predicted incorrectly and it was necessary to work on improving the analytical skills, and not to conclude a larger deal, which probably also closes in the negative
It is obvious that the psychology of trading significantly affects the performance of stock speculation both in the traditional market and in the field of cryptocurrency. It is important to remember that the success of a person in any field of activity depends on the emotional component, namely the internal balance. Exchange trading is a nervous activity, and if you do not learn to take emotions under control, the results can be disastrous. The basis for achieving success in stock trading, in my opinion, are two fundamental factors. The first factor relates to the field of formulation of the trading idea, and the second - to the area of ​​its implementation.
To formulate a trading idea, on the one hand, methods of technical and fundamental analysis are used to select an exchange instrument and determine the moment of opening and closing a position on it. On the other hand, capital management methods are used to determine the optimal size of the position being opened. As you know, without these two crucial moments it is impossible to achieve stable success in stock trading. As experience shows, for the most part, people have enough intelligence to master all the necessary theoretical knowledge of technical and fundamental analysis in a few months of intensive training. There are no special intellectual difficulties. But, as the same experience shows, this is clearly not enough for successful exchange trading, since all knowledge may turn out to be a useless load if the second success factor is not sufficiently present - the practical implementation of trading ideas, which is no longer based on the intellectual sphere, and psycho-emotional. It is within this area that the main problem arises for many traders, which prevents the receipt of stable profits. As a rule, this is due to the psycho-emotional profile of a person. It depends on how the trader will behave in the psychologically stressful situations that the exchange trading is full of. Inherent in all human emotions and feelings - fear, greed, excitement, envy, hope, etc. very often have a decisive influence on the behavior of traders, not allowing them to follow strictly the trading strategy and plan, even if they have one. From a psychological point of view, the process of stock exchange activity can be divided into stages, after which the trader can return to the starting point. The above scenarios and risk factors are one of the options for the behavior of an exchange speculator; however, it often happens exactly the opposite. Having suffered losses from his first transactions in the market, the trader loses interest in exchange trading, he gives up and he falls into despair. In this case, the first step to victory is the admission of defeat. It would seem silly and ridiculous, but it works. After that, there are two options: either the trader leaves the exchange forever, or returns to the battlefield. Such “returns” may occur more than once. In addition, at some other time, after repeated analysis of his actions, mistakes made and their consequences, a person from a beginner begins to turn into an experienced trader, which is marked by the stability of his activity and, perhaps, by slow, but surely growth of his deposit and profit. The psychological basis for success in trading, which leads to victory and the absence of which is equivalent to defeat, are as follows:
· It is not only the lack of self-control, discipline and focus on the process that causes the defeat
· Self-control, discipline and ability to concentrate is not enough to achieve success
· To achieve success, it is equally important to be able to adapt to changes
In principle, one can consider the idea that traditional approaches to the psychology of trading are limited. In the majority of benefits for traders, the key qualities necessary for successful exchange trading are only self-control and discipline. Of course, these qualities are necessary in any field of business activities. Trading is not an exception, especially considering that it is in the risk zone. But self-control and discipline are not enough to achieve success. Trading is a business. Moreover, any business does not stand still. You cannot find a formula for success and use it forever. You will need to monitor trends and constantly look for new successful solutions.
The main feature of a successful trader is adaptability to changes. The lack of development leads to defeat, large monetary losses. Many technology companies continued to produce stationary computers when laptops became popular. The same companies continued to produce laptops when tablets appeared and became popular. The products of these companies were of high quality, and their employees organized pre-set tasks in an organized manner. But they lost large sums due to the fact that they could not adapt to changes in demand. If we draw a parallel with the sphere of investment, the similarities will become noticeable. The stock market, like any other subject to change. One period is replaced by another. Those methods that allowed achieving success in the previous period can lead to failure in the current. The key concept in stock trading is volatility. The change in this indicates the onset of a new period. When volatility increases, trade becomes more risky. Accordingly, with a decrease in this indicator, the degree of risk during trading operations decreases. With a high level of volatility, trends most often unfold. Strong and weak positions can be swapped out. With a high level of volatility, trends continue for some time. From the foregoing, it should be concluded that market processes and methods during periods of high and low volatility differ strongly. You cannot use the same methods during changing market trends. Often it is the adherence to the previous methods, excessive discipline leads to collapse as well. The fact that the investor was defeated does not mean that he suddenly became morally unstable, unorganized. Trading is trading.
Therefore, we have every right to assert that under the psychology of trade in the markets is meant human preparedness for the risks that inevitably accompany any activity. Trading on the stock exchange is based on the interaction of the three most important components: capital management, analysis, and the psychology of trading (which cannot be considered in conjunction with the other aspects of trading). The psychology of human behavior is a source for understanding what is happening in financial markets. The source for understanding the events occurring in the financial markets and the behavior of traders during exchange trading is the psychology of the human person. Emotions — greed, fear, doubt, hope, a sense of self-preservation — are peculiar to any person in life — are clearly manifested in the hard rhythm of decision-making during the dynamic course of exchange trading (which was partially considered above). Knowledge of the human psychology and their behavioral characteristics must be used to achieve success. The psychology of a trader is formed from a multitude of grains - it is a belief in what one does in the stock market, in one’s actions, in own system of one’s decisions, in trading method. In addition, the psychology of a trader is that one can unload oneself emotionally, one does not accept the intellectual challenge that the stock market carries. On the contrary, becomes restrained, calm when making decisions on operations in the stock market. There are many situations where a trader expresses his attention and focus; he does not disperse it on the tracking of news factors or on the receipt of stimuli from the news agencies. Consequently, the crowd psychology is the factor that makes prices move, therefore, in addition to assessing one's own psychological state, one must be sensitive to changes in the mood of other market participants, move in the flow, not against it, and then success will not take long.
Of course, you can argue that why do I need this psychology? After all, besides creating your own strategies and individual work, some exchanges (including crypto exchanges) allow minimizing risks by following the strategies of experienced traders; this service is called a PAMM account. PAMM provides an opportunity for clients (Subscribers) to follow the trading strategy of experienced and professional traders (Providers). Provider's trading results are publicly available. With the help of the rating of accounts, graphs of profitability and reviews of other traders, you can choose the most suitable Provider and begin to follow his strategy. Again, in this case, the provider is a human with all the ensuing consequences. And psychological aspects are not foreign to professionals as well, including victories and mistakes. The financial market attracts people the possibility of obtaining independence, including financial. A successful trader can live and work in any country in the world without having either a boss or subordinates. The motivation of people on the exchanges can be different: from getting a higher percentage than from a bank to making several thousand dollars a day. At the same time, there are two main categories of people in the financial market (including cryptocurrencies): investors who acquire assets or currency for a relatively long period, and speculators who profit from changes in the prices of certain assets for short periods. Many believe, an easy way to make money is not for everybody. First, the skillful use and manipulation of the psychological aspects of a human make it possible to become a speculator. And this, of course, in addition to knowledge and analytical skills. Experience shows that successful speculation is the right state of mind. It would seem that this is the simplest thing that can be acquired by human. But in fact, this self-tuning is available to very few. It is also necessary to distinguish the psychology of the market and the personal psychology of the trader. The behavior of the market as a whole depends on people, since it is the stock market crowd that determines its direction. However, quite often traders lose sight of the most important component of victory - managing their personal emotions, that is, their psychology. Without control over oneself, there can be no control over one’s trading capital. If a trader is not tuned to the trend range of the stock crowd, if he does not pay attention to changes in her psychology, then he will also not achieve significant success in trading. To succeed on the exchange, one needs to take a sober look at exchange trading, recognize its trends and their changes, and not waste time on dreams or lamenting about failures.
Any price of a financial instrument is a momentary agreement on its value, reached by a market crowd and expressed in the fact of a transaction, i.e. it is the equilibrium point between the players for a rise and a fall, or the "equilibrium" price. Crowds of traders create asset prices: buyers, sellers and fluctuating market watchers. Charts of prices and trading volumes reflect the psychology of the exchange. In addition, this is always worth remembering! After all, the main purpose of the presence of the analysis of psychology in stock trading is not the quantity, but the quality of transactions. A person striving to become a good trader needs to remember the words of DiNapoli, a well-known stock exchange trader: “The most important trading tool is not a computer, not a service for supplying information, or even methods developed by a trader. It is he himself! If a trader is not suitable for this - he should not trade at all”! Therefore, before pushing orders on the trading platform, think about whether you are suitable for this role.
Join chat — https://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAE84vCXg5PK-VpHADg
Sergiy Golubyev (Сергей Голубев)
EU structural funds, ICO projects, NGO & investment projects, project management, comprehensive support of business
submitted by Golubyev_Sergiy to u/Golubyev_Sergiy [link] [comments]

Forex Scalping Trading Stategy

Forex Scalping Trading Stategy
Dear Traders,
My name is Ludovico and I am an associate of Horizon Trading team. Today, I would like to share with you a scalping technique that will give you an advantage in following price action fluctuations. Most importantly, this article will focus on fast timeframes trading tactics, how to spot important key levels and trigger your positions.
So, do scalping and price action go well together?
Considering that price action aims to predict what price is doing right now and where is heading, fast mindset and quick analysis become crucial; scalp trading is about the same thing. A scalp trade will take approximately 1 to 30 minutes, so to be effective and consistent in this discipline one must be reacting rapidly to price movements. Therefore, scalp requires quick analysis, quick responses and quick decisions, and at its core there is price action, which as well is all about speed and efficiency.
Now let s move on today’s topic on how to steadily understand fast trading potential earning set ups and to become a killer scalper.

What is scalping trading?

Scalping is a trading style that specialize in profiting off small price changes. It requires high level of concentration, because, due to its speed, a trader must have a strict entry exit strategy, otherwise one large loss could cancel all the many small gains in a blink of an eye.
The main features of scalping are:
Less exposure, lesser risk: A smaller exposure to price fluctuation will reduce the odds to run into adverse events.
Smaller moves are easier to forecast: Because like every market forex works on principles of supply and demands, a higher imbalance is needed to generate bigger price changes.
Smaller fluctuations are more regular than wider ones: Even in days when markets tend to less volatile, working with smaller timeframes such as (M1, M5, M15 & M30) will still grant chance of earning more frequently.
While swing trading relies on big price moves, therefore aiming for long trend following a scalper will trade that fluctuation continuously. Price action comes into play here, a solid scalp trader must be very aware of level of support and resistance and when the price could bounce off.
See image Below:

Figure 1: Support & Resistance, XAUUSD, M1, (23rd July 2019
In order to better find these areas a comparison between timeframes is necessary considering that is always advantageous to highlights the most recent zones of support & resistance (2 to 5 previous days)
Once understanding levels strategy become easier to follow, let’s find out.

Simple scalping and Horizon X scalping pattern

When trading trends continuously, important is to gauge market signals which indicate the trend is strong, opening to new potential earning scenarios for investors. When noticing price is coming back to retest important key levels forming pullbacks, a trader should always look out for entry-points.

Scalping pullbacks

Scalp traders must focus on key resistance and support level to find entry point while trading pullbacks. Here at Trading Academy we developed a system, based on fast moving price action that will enable traders to have successful daily session.
We based our method on understanding where big money players come into action and by following their liquidity volume open winning positions. Horizon X is based on several scalping price patterns which find their fundamentals in risk and money management, key levels and entry points.
See image below:

Figure 2:Scalp trading pullbacks, XAUUSD, M1, (23rd July 2019)
In the picture above I highlight the principle of trading pullbacks in M1 timeframe, this method relies on entering the market in specific hot spot key levels. Even though many traders globally do not take into consideration risk management, our vision is that while scalp trade, investors should follow clear objective rules to be effective, here is one of our coral patterns and its trade management rules.

Horizon X Pattern #3

This pattern aims to gauge momentums, big money players moves, consisting in fast formation of large body candle sticks (black bearish/white bullish)

Figure3: Pattern #3 configuration
To be formed Pattern #3 require several steps to be accomplished by the market before we can enter our position with confidence:
  • First Momentum
When price level is broken out at consolidation level big buyers make the move dragging price level on a rally, usually between 10-15 PIPS (as the image above suggests).
  1. Large candles (bodies)
  2. Mostly of one colour (back/bearish, white/bullish)
  3. Candles close its high/lows of the move
  • Consolidation Period
Within this first part price level is conditioned by the presence of many buyers on one side and sellers on the other stabilizing the price in a narrow range while building up important structure.
  1. Small candles, at least 3
  2. Greater mix between white/black or bullish/bearish candles
  • Second Momentum (breaking the price level at consolidation) – can be bearish or bullish depending on scenario)
When price level is broken out at consolidation level big buyers make the move dragging price level on a rally, usually between 10-15 PIPS (as the image above suggests).
  1. Large candles (bodies)
  2. Mostly of one colour (back/bearish, white/bullish)
  3. Candles close its high/lows of the move
  • Pullback
Price is coming back to retest level at the previous consolidation level and when fractal is formed market is giving investors hints that a good spot to open a position is coming up.
  1. Small candles, at least 3
  2. Greater mix between white/black or bullish/bearish candles

Entering the market

Pattern #3 can be traded by entering the market within the retesting price area at consolidation level, however the tactics would be based more on aggressivity of trader personality and behaviour. In this booklet we will describe the most commonly used one.
Entering in consolidation structure
Market needs more liquidity for further movement and is going deeper toward the structure taking stop losses of weak traders. Smarter investors, however, use these stop losses for their position gaining, entering the market when a fractal is formed.
See image below:

Figure 4: Pattern #3, entering market at consolidation structure, USDCHF H1 (22nd July 2019)
Entering at consolidation boarder
Price touches edges of consolidation and starts to reverse. We would like to open position when fractal is formed.
See image below:

Figure 5: Pattern #3, market entry at consolidation border, GBPUSD M1 (14th Mar 2019)
  • Entering after false break out
Severe stop-loss testing. Big players move price aggressively till the point that it breaks consolidation structure. This is a perfect situation for major traders to enter the market, pushing the price towards its original direction. We will conservatively open trade when the price level reaches back consolidation, forming a fractal.
See image below:

Figure 6: Pattern #3, market entry after false break out, GBPUSD M1 (6th June 2019)

Trade Management

Similarly, we can use 4 elementary exit strategies of our Horizon X Pattern #3.
  1. We will aim for a high structure level from higher timeframes (very good as a second take profit).
  2. For 1-minute timeframe we will take half of our position with 10 points profit as a target and put our stop-loss on break-even for the rest of the position.
  3. Our take profit is based on having ATR 80 %.
  4. Rule of safety. Our first take profit is set to risk-reward ratio 1:1 with a half of position. When the take profit is hit, we are in a risk-free position for the second target.
On the other hand, stop losses will be always places on top of the entry structure to avoid important losses which will likely vanish all the trader day effort.
submitted by Horizon_Trading to u/Horizon_Trading [link] [comments]

The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3b - Pricing and liquidity

*Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and SDC holder. *
...
Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
Part 3b continues where I left off with a discussion about price metrics specifically, what determines the price and the importance of liquidity:
...
The day traders:
As I mentioned in my previous article, as of writing almost every cryptocurrency is determined purely by speculative value.
Thus the absolute price of a given cryptocurrency is determined solely by the day traders and specifically the last price it was agreed that currency would be sold at with confirmation of that price by a buyer who bought it.
People say lots of things determine the price; marketcap, liquidity, value proposition, revenues generated by the coin, the number of said coin in circulation but ultimately it comes down to the number of buyers and number of sellers competing for that coin.
Perhaps the other thing is the size of said market relative to the money held by the players in it.
For instance in cryptocurrency Bitcoin is still the biggest player in the game. It carries a per unit price of $900 per coin. There are currently 16,090,137 (16 million) coins in circulation giving it a total marketcap value of [$900 x 16090137 =] $14481123300 or 14.48 billion USD.
Shadowcash looks even more meagre compared to the total cryptocurrency marketcap with only 0.048% of the total cryptocurrency sphere.
To any Shadowcash holders despairing at this point, relax. There are over 707 cryptocurrencies trading as of writing and SDC holds the 27th ranking in terms of market cap. In such a competitive field, filled with scams that's pretty good. Moreso when you consider that SDC is a legitimate technology and is currently probably very undervalued.
...
Lets look at the rich list for bitcoin:
Why did I just talk about this?
In cryptocurrency I see this happening on the markets all the time. Indeed market manipulation effects every single cryptocurrency eventually.
...
Market manipulation!
Large holders of valuable, high marketcap coins will often make multiple small volume purchases of less valuable, low marketcap coins. Often this will follow announcements regarding developments in that low marketcap coin.
Low volume buying in a market with low daily trading volume can gradually drive up the price attracting an influx of buyers into that coin; often they will make larger volume purchases of it which helps drive up the price much further. This will trigger a further chain of buyers experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out, detailed in Part 2) who will drive up the price even further. The price will pump. Often will smaller cap cryptocurrencies this may result in a sudden 20, 40, 60 or even +100% increase in value often over a very short time space (1-2 days, 1-2 weeks maximum).
The only way to discern if the sudden rise in coin value is due to pre-rigged market manipulation is to look at:
You are looking for organic, gradual growth based on a solid value proposition. Sudden large spikes in value should make you pause and wonder if it's worth waiting for a gradual correction (organic drop) in price before entering your buy order.
Do not fall for a pump and dump. Stick to the lessons covered in previous parts of this guide (especially part 3a and 2) and you will be much less likely to lose money in the long run trading and investing in cryptocurrencies.
...
The pattern of change on daily trading volume, the order book and liquidity:
Lets look at SDC and Bitcoin again. This time we are going to compare the daily trading volume (last 24 hours) in USD.
I'd just like to use this opportunity to point out and reinforce the idea that day traders not holders dictate the daily price of an asset. I'd also like to point out daily global trading volume on Forex is $4800 billion which makes Bitcoin a very small fish in the broader arena of global finance and trade i.e. Bitcoin is still very vulnerable to all the price manipulation tactics and liquidity issues I am going to be describing in this article by bigger players with richer pockets.
The daily trading volume also gives you an idea of how much fiat currency you can invest into a given cryptocurrency before you suddenly shift the price.
A sudden rise in coin price heavily out of proportion to the rise in daily trading volume should be the first sign to alert you to a pump & dump scam.
Daily trading volume should show a steady increase over time with sustained buy support at new price levels; this is a good marker of organic, sustainable growth.
...
For more detail you can now look at the depth chart:
The depth chart is very useful to know how much fiat currency is required to cause the spot price of a given cryptocurrency to rise or fall by a given amount.
NB the price of most cryptocurrencies is expressed in Bitcoin because it has the largest market cap and daily trading volume of all cryptocurrencies by a very large margin and because with a few exceptions (Ethereum, Monero) most cryptocurrencies do not have routes to directly purchase via fiat currency without first purchasing Bitcoin.
Liquidity is super important. People often complain about a market lacking liquidity but that is often because they are trading in fiat volumes which far exceed the daily trading fiat volumes of the cryptocurrency they are referring to. If you are investing or trading in a cryptocurrency, always factor in the your personal liquidity and need for liquidity relative to that of the cryptocurrency you are investing in. In other words don't expect to make a profit next day selling 'cryptocurrency x' if the size your single buy order composes >90% of the buy orders on the market for 'cryptocurrency x' that day (indeed in such a scenario be very prepared to sell at a loss next day if you absolutely have to)!
There are certain patterns on a depth chart that make me believe a significant, sustained price rise is imminent: One example occurs when there is a very large volume of buy orders (>25% of total buy volume within 5% of current price) very close to the current (spot) price, and a very large number of sell orders close to but significantly above the spot price (approx 25% total sell volume within 10% of current price) and especially if the total buy order volume is a significantly higher percentage than it has previously been. This simply indicates high demand at current price which may soon outstrip supply. Again I stress that these patterns can be manipulated easily by wealthy traders.
...
The order book is another way of looking at the depth chart and allows you to see the specific transactions occurring that compose daily trading volume by the second!
I find it useful because it allows me to identify:
...
The price charts:
Discussions about price charts could be endless. I'm not going to go into too much detail, mostly because I'm an investor who believes the value proposition, good consistent development, decent marketing and communications will ultimately trump spot prices and adverse (or positive) short term price trends in the future.
...
The news cycle:
...
Other interesting points: The 'coin x' scenario and the ridiculousness of marketcap:
'Coin X' is an imaginary hypothetical coin. There are only 10 in circulation. It has no value proposition beyond it's speculative value i.e. it will never generate a revenue independent of it's speculative value.
I'd like to point out the similarities between ZCash and 'coin x' (especially during it's launch).
...
Lessons:
...
Finally why am I writing this?
I mean I just spoke openly about how SDC and indeed any cryptocurrencies (or purely speculative assets) price can be manipulated in the short term.
Well SDC has an incredible value proposition that could generate and attract large amounts of non-speculative fiat currency into it's ecosystem. I already covered that in part 3a (https://www.reddit.com/Shadowcash/comments/5lhh6m/the_intelligent_investors_guide_to_cryptocurrency/).
For this reason I think the short term speculative pump and dumps in SDC will eventually be replaced by a more sustained, larger buy support. I suspect this will occur when the marketplace is released and certain other announcements are released.
For this reason I declare my opinion that Shadowcash is the best cryptocurrency investment of 2016 and I believe it will be again by March 2017.
...
References:
1. Coinmarketcap rankings: https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ 2. Coinmarketcap daily trading volumes https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/volume/24-hou 3. Bitinfocharts - Top 100 Richest Bitcoin addresses: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html 4. Crypto ID - Shadowcash Rich list: https://chainz.cryptoid.info/sdc/#!rich 
...
Disclaimer: All prices and values given are as of time of writing (Midday 08-Jan-2016). I am not responsible for your financial decisions, nor am I advising you take a particular financial position. Rather I am sharing my experiences and hoping you form your own opinions and insights from them. Full disclosure: I have long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), ICONOMI (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD).
submitted by joskye to Shadowcash [link] [comments]

The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3b - Pricing and liquidity

*Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and holder. *
...
 
Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
 
 
Part 3b continues where I left off with a discussion about price metrics specifically, what determines the price and the importance of liquidity:
...
 
The day traders:
 
As I mentioned in my previous article, as of writing almost every cryptocurrency is determined purely by speculative value.
 
 
For instance in cryptocurrency Bitcoin is still the biggest player in the game. It carries a per unit price of $900 per coin. There are currently 16,090,137 (16 million) coins in circulation giving it a total marketcap value of [$900 x 16090137 =] $14481123300 or 14.48 billion USD.
 
 
Shadowcash looks even more meagre compared to the total cryptocurrency marketcap with only 0.048% of the total cryptocurrency sphere.
To any Shadowcash holders despairing at this point, relax. There are over 707 cryptocurrencies trading as of writing and SDC holds the 27th ranking in terms of market cap. In such a competitive field, filled with scams that's pretty good. Moreso when you consider that SDC is a legitimate technology and is currently probably very undervalued.
...
 
Lets look at the rich list for bitcoin:
 
Why did I just talk about this?
 
In cryptocurrency I see this happening on the markets all the time. Indeed market manipulation effects every single cryptocurrency eventually.
...
 
Market manipulation!
 
Large holders of valuable, high marketcap coins will often make multiple small volume purchases of less valuable, low marketcap coins. Often this will follow announcements regarding developments in that low marketcap coin.
 
 
Low volume buying in a market with low daily trading volume can gradually drive up the price attracting an influx of buyers into that coin; often they will make larger volume purchases of it which helps drive up the price much further. This will trigger a further chain of buyers experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out, detailed in Part 2) who will drive up the price even further. The price will pump. Often will smaller cap cryptocurrencies this may result in a sudden 20, 40, 60 or even +100% increase in value often over a very short time space (1-2 days, 1-2 weeks maximum).
 
 
The only way to discern if the sudden rise in coin value is due to pre-rigged market manipulation is to look at:
 
You are looking for organic, gradual growth based on a solid value proposition. Sudden large spikes in value should make you pause and wonder if it's worth waiting for a gradual correction (organic drop) in price before entering your buy order.
 
Do not fall for a pump and dump. Stick to the lessons covered in previous parts of this guide (especially part 3a and 2) and you will be much less likely to lose money in the long run trading and investing in cryptocurrencies.
...
 
The pattern of change on daily trading volume, the order book and liquidity:
 
Lets look at SDC and Bitcoin again. This time we are going to compare the daily trading volume (last 24 hours) in USD.
 
 
I'd just like to use this opportunity to point out and reinforce the idea that day traders not holders dictate the daily price of an asset. I'd also like to point out daily global trading volume on Forex is $4800 billion which makes Bitcoin a very small fish in the broader arena of global finance and trade i.e. Bitcoin is still very vulnerable to all the price manipulation tactics and liquidity issues I am going to be describing in this article by bigger players with richer pockets.
 
 
The daily trading volume also gives you an idea of how much fiat currency you can invest into a given cryptocurrency before you suddenly shift the price.
 
 
A sudden rise in coin price heavily out of proportion to the rise in daily trading volume should be the first sign to alert you to a pump & dump scam.
 
Daily trading volume should show a steady increase over time with sustained buy support at new price levels; this is a good marker of organic, sustainable growth.
...
 
For more detail you can now look at the depth chart:
 
The depth chart is very useful to know how much fiat currency is required to cause the spot price of a given cryptocurrency to rise or fall by a given amount.
 
NB the price of most cryptocurrencies is expressed in Bitcoin because it has the largest market cap and daily trading volume of all cryptocurrencies by a very large margin and because with a few exceptions (Ethereum, Monero) most cryptocurrencies do not have routes to directly purchase via fiat currency without first purchasing Bitcoin.
 
Liquidity is super important. People often complain about a market lacking liquidity but that is often because they are trading in fiat volumes which far exceed the daily trading fiat volumes of the cryptocurrency they are referring to. If you are investing or trading in a cryptocurrency, always factor in the your personal liquidity and need for liquidity relative to that of the cryptocurrency you are investing in. In other words don't expect to make a profit next day selling 'cryptocurrency x' if the size your single buy order composes >90% of the buy orders on the market for 'cryptocurrency x' that day (indeed in such a scenario be very prepared to sell at a loss next day if you absolutely have to)!
 
 
There are certain patterns on a depth chart that make me believe a significant, sustained price rise is imminent: One example occurs when there is a very large volume of buy orders (>25% of total buy volume within 5% of current price) very close to the current (spot) price, and a very large number of sell orders close to but significantly above the spot price (approx 25% total sell volume within 10% of current price) and especially if the total buy order volume is a significantly higher percentage than it has previously been. This simply indicates high demand at current price which may soon outstrip supply. Again I stress that these patterns can be manipulated easily by wealthy traders.
 
...
 
The order book is another way of looking at the depth chart and allows you to see the specific transactions occurring that compose daily trading volume by the second!
 
I find it useful because it allows me to identify:
 
...
 
The price charts:
 
Discussions about price charts could be endless. I'm not going to go into too much detail, mostly because I'm an investor who believes the value proposition, good consistent development, decent marketing and communications will ultimately trump spot prices and adverse (or positive) short term price trends in the future.
...
 
The news cycle:
 
...
 
Other interesting points: The 'coin x' scenario and the ridiculousness of marketcap:
 
'Coin X' is an imaginary hypothetical coin. There are only 10 in circulation. It has no value proposition beyond it's speculative value i.e. it will never generate a revenue independent of it's speculative value.
 
 
I'd like to point out the similarities between ZCash and 'coin x' (especially during it's launch).
...
 
Lessons:
 
 
...
 
References:
1. Coinmarketcap rankings: https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ 2. Coinmarketcap daily trading volumes https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/volume/24-hou 3. Bitinfocharts - Top 100 Richest Bitcoin addresses: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html 4. Crypto ID - Shadowcash Rich list: https://chainz.cryptoid.info/sdc/#!rich 
 
...
 
Further articles in this series:
 
"The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency"
 
Part 0 -
Part 1 -
Part 2 -
Part 3a -
Part 3b -
Part 4 -
Part 5 -
Part 6 -
Part 7a -
 
"The intelligent investors guide to Particl -"
 
 
Full disclosure/Disclaimer: At time of original writing I had long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), Iconomi (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD). All the opinions expressed are my own. I cannot guarantee gains; losses are sustainable; do your own financial research and make your decisions responsibly. All prices and values given are as of time of first writing (Midday 8th-Jan-2017).
 
Second disclaimer: Please do not buy Shadowcash (SDC), the project has been abandoned by it's developers who have moved on to the Particl Project (PART). The PARTICL crowd fund and SDC 1:1 token swap completed April 15th. You can still exchange SDC for PART but only if it was acquired prior to 15th April 2017 see: https://particl.news/a-community-driven-initiative-e26724100c3a for more information.
 
Addendum: Article updated 23-11-2017 to edit references to SDC (changed to Particl where relevant to reflect updated status) and clean up formatting.
submitted by joskye to Particl [link] [comments]

Daytraders discussion, ideas and strategy sharing (TA+FA)

TA that I use constantly and find working for a bit over a year:
FA principles that I constantly use and find immensely useful to always keep in mind:
Trading techniques and strategies:
I used to sell EURUSD at retracements due to high central bank policy divergence, good USA data and pretty bad Euro Zone data. Used a high SL because of high conviction and never actually had a losing day.
After the holiday I will be starting to trade once again. I was thinking about simply looking for decent conviction trades and just take em all with a 1:1 risk:reward ratio and see how it goes in a day trader's time frame (intra day).
Both FA and TA traders and mutts like myself and every type of trader are welcome to share and give constructive criticism to any idea or strategy or just share your strategy!
EDIT: Here are a few free websites that I use:
Calendars:
Pure data:
News stories and analysis:
Use these to gauge the general vibe and sentiment of what the markets are thinking! Big hedge funds and commercial banks occasionally get interviewed:
Forex live: best for last!
The news are released and updated fairly real time, during big releases they come out with the story+analyzed story within minutes. It's a realtime feed so you won't be refreshing the page to get updated.
submitted by anti_erection_man to Forex [link] [comments]

(Reboot) ELI5 on how China fucked their own economy, chapter 6

OK Yesterday's HCFTHE was a big let down. I read on the next few chapters and I feel like there's no more point in translating anymore because the author's coherence is slipping.
This is a reboot. From here on, it's all cruise speed. No translating, it's all me!
(Translated) Chapter 1
(Translated) Chapter 2
(Translated) Chapter 3
(Translated) Chapter 4
(Translated) Chapter 5
Chapter 6: RMB internationalization, a dream? a future?
RMB internationalization. You've heard of RMB. We all have, the legend, the curses. Some foolishness about a currency that never devalues. A closed currency. Buried beneath an opaque monetary policy... a bald, aging portrait of Mao luring investors to their dreams. An illusion that you can begin again, change your fortunes. Issuing them, though, that's not the hard part. It's internationalization.
(Sorry been playing A LOT of fallout. Production is down 50% because half my office are gone and the other half...are playing with me. Seriously, fuck Chinese New year.)
Except for the face culture, RMB internationalization is pretty much a national goal of China. To have their currency achieve global status will make it a rival currency for the USDollar, much like the Euros...except it's Asian. An Asian euro is crucial for China to establish its asiaphere influence zone. Having China enter IMF's basket of currencies is just a first step.
Before we talk about "how", let's talk "why". Why is it important for RMB to go global. For this we will need a deep understanding of world economics, but to dumb it down to ELI5 levels, we'll simplify it down as following:
World domination.
Wow wow wow holy fuck upads what the fuck!? This escalated quickly!
Sorry, but this is a fact. The British Pound, once served as the world's premier reserve currency, shaped the British Empire where the sun never. In fact, UK still hold [14 overseas territories[(https://archive.org/stream/09LONDON1039/09LONDON1039_djvu.txt), and the sun never sets on all fourteen British territories at once. Glory to the queen!
OK let's double time, here's a short list of goals that RMB internationalization can help achieve:
  1. Debt. Chinese companies have a lot of debt in USD. As of right now China don't want RMB to devalue because it would make debts harder to pay.
  2. Getting rid of forex risk. Self explained.
  3. Exports. With all China's debts in RMB there will be no consequence in devaluing the RMB. Will you pay $400 for a Huawei smartphone? No? How about $100? Cheaper price, it helps boosts sales volume. A lot.
  4. Getting rid of language barrier. If you look up most common language on harmony it lists Chinese with the most number of speaker s in the world, followed by Spanish, then English. Guess what language is most common in the business world? English. Guess what language does world reserve currency countries speak? English.
  5. Getting rid of autistic monkeys ESL teachers. Having RMB as a global currency will help China demand their business partners to start speaking Chinese, giving China home field advantage. The reason ESL teachers are needed is because China needs to do business in English. Seriously why the fuck do I need to learn English if I'm not gonna do business?
  6. Better politics. With foreign languages kicked out of their curriculum, the Chinese population can spend more time learning useful things, such as how to worship the communist party Seriously, learning how to think politically is a mandatory subject in high school curriculum, as well as gaokao.
  7. Better economics.
Now on the spot light. Everyone who are asking me to talk about silk road start reading here.
Right now, China is in a tough spot with their overproduction problem. Here's a flow chart, from the start to now:
  1. Steel industries fighting to get into the market
  2. Too many steel suppliers leads to overproduction
  3. One steel suppliers try to eliminate competitions by driving prices down.
  4. Every steel supplier does the same.
  5. Prices eventually go so low, sales price is lower than production price.
  6. Every steel suppliers are now religions, praying their competitions will go bankrupt first so they can one day dominate the market.
  7. CCP cracks down on religion, prayers not answered. Steel suppliers now in the negative, have to borrow money from banks.
  8. Banking regulations stats they can only lend money to suppliers who are in business, i.e. have production and sales. Nobody can sack their workers and nobody can let their workers sit idle because it is also against the law to have idle workers.
  9. Death spiral: Lending leads to production, production leads to loss, loss leads to lending.
China is not as stupid as you think. They know how supply and demand works. They did not foresee the death spiral because there is no precedent. In normal cases supply-demand imbalance even out naturally by supply side shutting down due to lack of profit. But this is China. Steel makers are not investing their own money in the business, they are getting their source of funds from the government are. They do not care if their factories do not turn a profit. Afterall, it's not their own business.
"China is different." Damn right you are. China is the only country in the WTO whose majority of the population lacks independent thinking. The Chinese hierarchy system...it's a convenience. It tells you where to go, what to do, dulls your brain. The party wants us to make steel, I make steel, you make steel, everyone make steel! Everyone apply for a job for the steel making industry and everyone get subsidy from the government! Everyone drive down prices and everyone borrow money! Because the party says we need to make steel.
To fix this death spiral, China needs a larger demand, and if they cannot create demand among themselves, they have to create demand among foreign countries...and there is no way in hell the Americans and Europeans will accept Chinese quality steel.
So, turning their eye to Iran, Pakistan and other developing countries. Cue the one belt, one road protocol. Here's their pitch, dumbed down:
China: Do you want GDP? Do you want groooowth? Learn from us! Build bridges! We can sell you steel at half price! Not like greedy Europeans.
Really, that's it. Building infrastructure is one of the fastest way to bump your GDP, even if they end up useless later on. If China can sell their steel to those countries, they can effectively get rid of a lot of overproduction, maybe even evening out the supply-demand imbalances with the increase in demand!
Two obstacles here.
These developing countries have their own currency, and their other currency is in the form of foreign exchange, in USD. Foreign exchange risk still applies here. Secondly, because they are developing countries...often they don't have the money.
The solution: lend them money. With RMB. Through the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. This is going to kill 3 birds with one stone.
  1. Provide capital...provide a means to demand for things. The steel makers can now make a sale, easing oversupply problem finally.
  2. Weaken USD status, strengthen RMB status. Take loan out in RMB, repay with RMB...except you don't have RMB in your reserves. You take your USD from your foreign reserves, and exchange for RMB, because with closer ties with China supplying your every needs, there is no reason to be keeping those USDollars. Although AIIB says it's going to offer USD, Euro and RMB, you bet your ass that they are going to offer some very good conditions on taking loans out in RMB...the potential of further devaluation of RMB is already very attractive, I wonder what else they can add.
  3. Debt settlement. China can now use your USD to repay your debt (fun fact: AIIB lending terms are on a 3 year basis, so they will be collecting their USD in 2019----Guess when the majority of China's foreign debts are due? 2020. Their timing is just perfect).
  4. Positive cycle: Initial lending leads to sales of steel, sales of steel leads to infrastructure building, infrastructure building leads to more sales of other materials, which leads to more lending...the whole cycle leads to weaker USD status in these countries and strong RMB status.
Whew! That's a lot of research! Now that we got the AIIB out of the way, one belt is partially explained but to those who don't get it, high speed rail uses a lot of steel, and is considered infrastructure.
Now that we've got AIIB and one belt under the belt, the last that remains: one road. This is when I'm going into /conspiracy level shit talking and I'm sure I'll be generating a lot of downvotes, so I'll keep it skippy. Here's a list of problems are facing that can be solved with one road(sea silk road):
  1. Over production
  2. Economy focused along shorelines
  3. Dependency on natural resources from hostile foreign forces.
Here's how one road will help them solve these problems:
  1. Trade to solve overproduction, already mentioned above.
  2. Give China an excuse to exercise more controls on the sea, such as the entire South China Sea.
  3. This is the most important. Control of sea routes will allow China to prioritize their freight routes over other countries. While SCS is going to be free, it will be "free with Chinese characteristics". Freights from China are going to flood the SCS and take up a lot of queue space in sea routes shared with other countries, namely Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Phili, Indonesia, Taiwa, Vietnam, etc. If you have ever tried queuing with the Chinese, you know how this will end.
  4. Fuck yeah.
submitted by upads to China [link] [comments]

[EVENT] Market shock mitigation deployed by CPC, PBOC in response to American sanctions

Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China, Sanlihe, Xicheng District, Beijing
 
Shock Mitigation, Market and Sector Responses
 
A strong statement today by President Xi Jinping as news trickled in of yet another American policy shift: "America cannot win a trade war." Over successive policy statements and briefs from central Ministry of Finance officials, it has become clear that the response of Chinese authorities is directed to drive home the President's sentiment. China holds vastly more capacity to outlast the United States in a protracted trade war, including over $3T in Forex reserves to the United States $118 billion, finalized and active RCEP and nearly finalized SCO agreements, and large internalized increases in domestic consumption.
However, President Jinping has stated that "Beijing will not allow the Washington to display a complete lack of international diplomatic respect and sensibility, treating China as an inferior nation to be brought to heel." Many Chinese news outlets are now quoting Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, who noted that "American middle and lower class consumers will be the real losers here, while Chinese manufacturers will seek to accelerate their move to developing markets and focus greater on our emerging middle class."
Finance and administration officials have touted a recently released package of counter active industry and domestic economic actions as the first step in a "decisive Chinese response," signaling that Beijing intends to both sharply mitigate Chinese economic damage while fighting back against American tariffs, both defensively and offensively.
 
Internal Economic Measures
 
CPC leaders are aware that in a war of tariff attrition with their largest export market, they have a distinct major advantage: a burgeoning domestic consumption market driven by a developing middle class and decade high level of economic growth, and have made a point of contrasting this with a mature and developed American market.
Leaders have quickly sought to boost market confidence, banking on the successful and level response of the administration in Beijing in sharp contrast to the erratic and damaging actions lately from Washington. Having successfully prevented and even boosted capital reserves over the past five years far across the $3T line while slowly shrinking various bubbles under the SAFE program, officials are confident that the Chinese economy is well positioned to absorb the external shock through a variety of means, including the following:
 
 
These measures are designed as a temporary stopgap while the CPC works on releasing a long term, sustainable economic rebalance, which is widely expected in the following days.
 
Yuan Adjustment
 
The Yuan is currently pegged in a "managed floating rate" against the USD at ¥6.2/$1. To ease the pressure on Chinese exporters driven by US tariffs, and to ensure that exports remain competitive especially in critical developing markets - which Beijing is now seeking to dominate, as has been for years - the PBOC has instituted a small change to the managed reference rate. This is not referred to as a devaluation in any way.
 
 
Beijing is looking to quietly engineer a 2pc reduction in the CNY in a single sweep, with a maximum trading rate falling against to ¥7/$1. However, Yang Gi, Deputy Minister of the PBOC, has put out a statement noting:
 
"The assumption that the People's Bank is attempting to engineer a ten percent devaluation is groundless. The volatility in the market is currently under careful control, and is largely in relation to American financial pressures. However, the PBOC stands ready to step in with capital control measures - including forex buybacks of the Yuan - if the market turns sour."
 
Specific Industry Stimulus
 
Party officials and Financial deputies have examined at the situation in each of the general tariffed areas excepting automobiles; steel/iron, aluminum, textiles, industrial machinery, and heavy manufacturing. In several cases, demand is incredibly saturated domestically; in others, the addition of SCO/RCEP FTAs and the progress of the Silk Road to Western Asia and Europe have insulated the sectors. However, officials also view this as a chance to rebalance growth in several over-capacitated sectors, a long standing goal.
 
 
Automotive parts and finished exports have not been given specific attention due to the second part of the package, where reciprocal measures will soon be imposed; leading to the belief that American car parts manufacturers will soon lobby the government to remove the shortsighted 30% duty.
 
submitted by S01780 to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]

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FREE Price Action Mastery Course: Supply & Demand Zones ... Trading Forex Supply and Demand: Finding high probability ... How to find supply and demand zones forex 2020 - YouTube Finding Institutional Supply and Demand Zones in FOREX ... Expert Opinion: How to Chart Supply and Demand Zones - YouTube SUPPLY AND DEMAND ZONE TRADING - FREE FOREX TRADING COURSE ... Supply and Demand Strategy Explained - YouTube

Supply and Demand Forex – The driving force behind changes in price is supply and demand. When there are more buyers than sellers, the market price will move up. Conversely, when there are more sellers than buyers, the market price will move down. When buyers and sellers are more or less even, the market will range. These simple concepts are very powerful and allow us to analyze naked charts ... MTF Supply Demand Zones can be found in the MQL5 marketplace under the indicators category. We have provided a link to it below just in case there are other indicators with similar names. The indicator was uploaded by Georgios Kalomoiropoulos on the 4th of March 2019, it recently received an… What is Supply and Demand in Forex? When talking about supply and demand in forex, we always refer to zones rather than specific prices. This is because while the market consensus may be that a particular area is where buyers or sellers want to execute their trades, not everyone is going to have the exact same price point. How do you identify supply and demand zones on a chart? Areas of supply for a market is at overhead price levels is what creates resistance. An area of supply is a price zone where many traders and investors are holding a stock and willing to sell it. Overhead resistance is created when people sell to lock in their gains at profit target levels. A supply level can also be created when people ... The good news is that Supply and Demand zones can be used with equal success on all timeframes. I would still recommend that you use them on timeframes higher than 60 minutes. Anything below that consists of a lot of noise and more false signals. In my experience, the best timeframes to spot supply and demand zones are the 4H and the Daily. The Setup- How to Find Supply and Demand Zones . The ... The Supply Demand MT4 Indicator. The supply and demand are not actual levels, but they encompass a zone or a narrow range from where the price can potentially reverse. The chart below illustrates the most basic ways the Supply Demand MT4 indicator plots the most important and price sensitive supply and demand zones. Knowing how Forex supply and demand play a role in the market is extremely important to your trading success. ... Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of ... Supply and demand zones are observable areas on a forex chart where price has approached many times in the past. Unlike lines of support and resistance , these resemble zones more closely than ... SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOREX TRADING (Taught by Mr. Mansor Sapari) ... identify each of the zones and CS types. Once the demand or supply zone has been drawn, the area can be further refined by looking at the lower Time Frame (TF). This will then lower the Stop Loss. Stop Loss is placed slightly above the supply or demand zone. The Take Profit (TP) area can be identified by looking at the chart and ... More from my site. Defining Forex Supply / Demand Zones (continued) In this article, we continue to study the trading methodology from the demand/supply zones of Sam Seyden and his followers. You can familiarize yourself with the first article at the link […] Posted in FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, FOREX BASICS, FOREX ANALYTICS; How to use the yield curve of bonds on Forex I have written more ...

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FREE Price Action Mastery Course: Supply & Demand Zones ...

In Trading Forex Supply and Demand: Finding high probability zones i give you a checklist that will help you identify high probability supply and demand zone... All about Trading in Forex Marked Supply and Demand Strategy Explained Backgroung music: C_Major_Prelude ------------------------------- More Tags: "fib... #supplyanddemandforex #forex #trading180 Join the supply & demand Discord coaching group! https://www.trading180.com Access The FREE Forex Fundamental Analys... Supply and Demand zones are one of the strong price action indicators. Experienced traders are able to recognize S/D zones easily while new traders usually s... www.whiteoakfx.com University for Traders! In this class we discussed the very core of what we do here at the school, finding institutional supply and demand... How to find supply and demand zones forex Supply and Demand zones do offer a great insights into the structure of any market. If you have an idea of how to t... #forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join the A1 Trading Team? Follow along with trades taken by our top trading analysts, join our trading chatroom, ...

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